Just when you thought it was safe…Ed Vallee, head meteorologist at Vallee Weather Consulting LLC., warns:
“Another east coast storm is on tap Wednesday into Wednesday, but this one is a bit different than this past event. A powerful storm will push through the middle of the country into Tuesday, while a secondary low-pressure system forms off the Mid Atlantic coast. This storm will be more progressive, limiting the amount of time strong winds and heavy precipitation can be in any one location, unlike the storm last week which moved very slowly off the New England coast.
As with any coastal storm, there remains some uncertainty in where this system will exactly track, which will ultimately impact where the rain/snow line will set up near the coast and how much snow falls. Regardless, confidence is increasing in a moderate to heavy snow event across the Mid-Atlantic and New England, with some places approaching 1 foot of snowfall. This combined with strong winds, will once again introduce a power outage risk across a region that in some places has yet to restore power from the storm last week.”
Vallee makes the point that winter is not finished with the Northeast just yet.
According to the National Weather Service, a winter storm watch has been declared for much of the Northeast for the second time in a week, as a new storm is expected to dump snow from New York to Massachusets that are still recovering from last week’s bombogenesis explosion.
The National Weather Service is now warning of “round 2,” as a winter storm advisory is now in effect for northeast New Jersey, southern Connecticut, and southeast New York, which could see as much as 6 to 9 inches (15 to 23 centimeters) of snow starting late Tuesday night into Wednesday evening.
“I have mentioned this a few times, but I do think the EPS snow tool is good at depicting the area of highest concern (here is the I-84 corridor). Still convinced SE areas mix, but confidence increasing on big impact just inland, potentially including NYC and perhaps Philly,” said Vallee.
“European EPS now over Nantucket Wednesday evening. Big snow signal for the I-84 corridor down into the Lehigh Valley of PA including Hartford, Allentown, most of NYC metro, and Boston,” Vallee added.
Meteorologist Steven DiMartino, the operator of NY, NJ, PA Weather, warned in his Monday afternoon weather note titled “Nor’ Easter To Bring More Snow, Winds, And Coastal Flooding,” that a significant winter storm is headed to the Northeast between Wednesday and Thursday. Here is the summary of the weather note:
An area of low pressure currently in the Plains this afternoon will bring a major winter storm to the region tomorrow night on through early Thursday morning with significant snow accumulations, poor visibility, strong winds, and coastal flooding.
The storm will initially track towards the Ohio River Valley tomorrow evening with increasing clouds and a few rain and snow showers. This low pressure system will redevelop off the Delmarva Peninsula on Wednesday morning with rain and snow rapidly developing throughout the region in time for the Wednesday morning rush hour.
Along the immediate coast of New Jersey, some warm air will mix in to start the precipitation as rain before strong lifting cools the atmosphere to change the rain over to snow. As a result, snow accumulations in these areas will be in a lower range.
For the rest of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas, heavy snowfall can be expected. The snow will feature convective banding which will lead to a wide range of snowfall accumulation, but a base of 6″ is expected. Some rain and sleet may mix in at times as well. There will be the potential for snowfall totals to go over 12″ in a few locations due to mesoscale banding impacts.
The snow will taper off to the west with a sharp cut off over easter Pennsylvania from the heaviest snowfall to liter snowfall thus the lower snowfall amounts.
In addition to the snowfall, strong winds are expected to impact the region as the low pressure system rapidly intensifies with sustained winds by late Wednesday morning between 15 to 30 mph with gusts over 40 mph at times. The strong winds will produce poor visibility, power outages, and downed trees.
Another concern will be coastal flooding, especially for locations like Long Island where the current sea levels are already elevated from the previous storm. While this storm will exit by Thursday morning, coastal flooding concerns will be elevated on late Tuesday night and continue on through Thursday.
The worst impacts from this storm will be from 10 AM to 11 PM Wednesday with heavy snowfall, poor visibility, strong wind gusts, and coastal flooding.
If the low pressure system tracks closer to the coast, warmer conditions will be found on the coast, reducing snowfall potential. The storm may also track further east, but this potential did not show up in any current guidance.